2023: What the hard numbers tell us about the global market

In a year that saw record auction entries but mixed results, we take a detailed look at what happened over the last 12 months, teasing out the trends likely to continue in 2024.
 
With the proliferation of online auctions, sealed-bid and private treaty sales, as well as the vast number of classics offered at hundreds of lower-key events across the globe, it would take a brave (or foolish) commentator to interpret – or even establish – a potential overall gross that is ‘better’ or ‘worse’ than in years past.
 
Online sales continue to take a march on traditional events. US giant Bring a Trailer is expected to announce an overall figure in excess of the $1.35bn recorded in 2022. Over the same period, smaller British competitor Collecting Cars reports an increase in turnover of ca. 17%, to £210 million.
 
This is the first time since the pandemic that meaningful year-on-year results can be analysed. We’ve taken the figures from major-league auctions held by the international firms in the US and Europe this year‡ and compared them with identical events conducted in 2022. It’s a broad spectrum that includes the traditional (Amelia, Paris and Monterey) and modern, typified by RM’s new happening in Munich.
 
In simple terms, the torrent of entries – including a bloated 338 lots up for grabs in four locations on one day at Monterey – failed to shift the dial on the overall gross: 23% more cars catalogued in our list of auctions generated just an additional 2% in turnover. On every metric, the year-on figures slipped back, though the sell-through rate is a still-resilient 80%. Cars were finding owners – but at the right price on the day.
 
Taking the Top 10 cars purchased at all auctions last year, it’s a surprisingly different story: they total a massive $206m vs. $112m in 2022. And the list includes more modern entries: the average vintage is 1978 vs. 1953. RM’s year-topping GTO was presented at a dedicated event, as was Artcurial’s fifth-place 250 LM, traded in bizarre circumstances last summer. However, diving deeper into our year-on figures, where potential bidders had to endure auction marathons the picture is not so rosy: out of the 20 biggest-ticket lots offered this year, only 11 sold. In 2022 that figure was 16.
 
Ferrari and Porsche remain the brands for collectors. Owning a car from Maranello is a safer bet and, despite softer results, the sell-through for Ferraris at auction remains the same at 89-90%. For Porsche fans, it’s not quite so good: more cars than ever were in the market, and they didn’t sell as well as in the past. And fewer $3-4m+ racing Porsches came out or were bought.
 
Much has been written about younger collectors seeking cars from their youth. This happened over the Covid period but has now settled down: it’s still a roughly 80/20 split between pre- and post-1994 entries at these big auctions. And once again the sell-through percentage is slightly better for the younger cars: 86% sold for the newer vs. 79% for the older, echoing a trend seen last year.  
 
Here are our five takeaways on business at the start of 2024:
 
1.    “Find me a good one”. Now, more than ever, the market wants best-of-the-best cars. RM’s Ferrari 330 LM/250 GTO sold at the right price for a car that needed a very knowledgeable (and solvent) buyer, and there are myriad reasons why it’s tough to sell cars of this value at public auction. Conversely, Gooding hit the ball out of the park with the 1912 Simplex at $4,075,000, but when will you ever find another car which has been in the same ownership for 111 years?   
 
2.    Circumstances matter. Artcurial headlined a never-raced Ferrari 250 LM twice in just five months, and had the front-row bid made in Paris been accepted, as it should have done, the result would have been very different. After three days in the auction tents, a weary audience witnessed one high-profile lot after another fail to sell at RM on Saturday night in Monterey. Would these have found buyers at bespoke events, or high-profile, carefully selected auctions in Miami or New York? Quite possibly. “Take it and we’ll work on the reserve later” also doesn’t work, as Bonhams proved with the Ferrari 412P which might have attracted more than one bid had other buyers known it could be sold for that price.
 
3.    In the fast lane: top tier, younger Formula 1 cars, limited-edition Porsche 964s and 993s, Turbos in particular, Miura SVs, Dino GTSs, 275 GTBs, 300 SLs – but only in unusual colours and specifications and with impeccable histories.
 
4.    On cruise control: Lamborghini Countach, Maserati Ghibli Spyder, Bugatti EB110, red Ferrari LaFerrari, sporting pre-War Alfa Romeo 8C and Bugatti Type 57, Mercedes-Benz 540K Special Roadster, Ferrari 250 GT Tour de France, Ferrari ‘Daytona’ Spider, Lexus LFA, Ford GT (2005-2006).
 
5.    Awaiting recovery: all pedestrian, non-premier-event-worthy pre-War, early 1950s European sports cars of all marques, ‘storied’ 1950s sports-racers, non-S chrome-bumper 911s, McLaren hybrid hypercars, red, US-spec ‘Daytonas’, Lamborghini 350/400 GT, Bentley R-Type Continental, no-paperwork/non-matching ‘DB’ Astons…
 
Thanks for your support over the last 12 months. We’ll be behind the scenes once again to provide market intelligence and insight on happenings in 2024, starting with the surprise inclusion of three platinum-standard Ferraris at Mecum’s Kissimmee auction coming up shortly. Here are some hard facts to flesh out the above overview:  
 
Top 10 cars sold at auction by value 2023 – all sales (gross)†
 
1. 1962 Ferrari 330 LM/250 GTO RM New York $51,705,000
2. 1967 Ferrari 412P Bonhams Monterey $30,255,000
3. 2013 Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 W04 RM Las Vegas $18,815,000
4. 1962 Ferrari 250 GT SWB California Spider Gooding Amelia Island $18,045,000
5. 1964 Ferrari 250 LM Artcurial Paris $16,824,650
6. 1957 Jaguar XKSS RM Monterey $13,205,000
7. 1972 Ferrari 312 PB RM Villa d'Este $13,030,245
8. 2022 Bugatti Chiron Profilée RM Paris $10,604,964
9. 2002 Mercedes-Benz CLK Roadster RM Las Vegas $10,235,000
10. 1962 Ferrari 250 GT SWB (steel) Gooding Pebble Beach $9,465,000
 
Total value of Top 10 sales in 2023 $205,916,324 (2022, $111,742,051, excluding the 1955 Mercedes-Benz SLR Coupé sold at a private event) +84%.
 
Average year of Top 10 car sold in 2023: 1978 (2022, 1953).
 
Unlike 2022, no pre-War and only one 1950s car features in the Top 10, a result partly driven by the substance of the catalogues but also a sign of changing tastes. Yet again the list is packed with Ferraris, though the new Bugatti Chiron Profilée one-off and 10-year-old Mercedes F1 are significant entries. All bar one car broke the $10m barrier in 2023. Last year that figure was three out of ten.
 
† Excludes cars bought from auction houses by sealed bid or private treaty. Dollar conversions made on the day.
 
Major like-for-like-auctions held in 2023 (2022)‡
 
Total gross cars: $838,021,606 ($820,988,867)
Number of cars not sold: 447 (256)
Number of cars withdrawn: 21 (21)
Total number of cars: 2252 (1829)
Number sold: 1805 (1573)
Percentage cars sold by number: 80% (86%)
Percentage by value average low/high estimate: 58% (70%)
Percentage of cars sold below low estimate: 59% (46%)
Percentage of cars sold not met average of estimates: 78% (61%)
Percentage of cars sold met/exceeded top estimate: 12% (24%)
Average year of cars offered: 1970 (1968)
Average price of cars sold: $464,278 ($521,926)
Percentage of cars offered at No Reserve:  47% (44%)
 
The significant (+23%) increase in number of cars offered only resulted in a 2% increase in the aggregated gross, and that included the $30m Ferrari 412P (pictured, top). Auction overload made many think: “I need a break. I’ll sit this one out”. All the other metrics show a gradual retreat from the record figures posted in 2022, but it’s not been a fire sale.
 
Top 20 cars by average pre-sale estimate offered at major like-for-like-auctions held in 2023 (2022)‡
 
Total mid-range estimates: $224,550,000 ($187,000,000)
Total achieved net: $94,300,000 ($114,585,714)
Percentage by value average low/high estimate: 42% (61%)
Total gross of Top 20 estimate cars: $104,856,216 ($126,212,500)
Number not sold: 9 (4)
Percentage sold: 55% (80%)
 
Blame too many big-ticket cars – many recently bought – offered at punchy estimates during Monterey Week for the significant reduction in both sell-through (55% vs. 80%) and the fact that the eventual hammer prices only totalled just over 40 per cent of the sum of these cars’ average pre-sale estimates.
 
Ferrari market. Cars offered at major like-for-like-auctions held in 2023 (2022)‡
 
Total gross cars: $290,761,737 ($253,491,907)
Number of cars not sold: 31 (24)
Number of cars withdrawn: 3 (3)
Total number of cars: 264 (217)
Number sold: 233 (193)
Percentage cars sold by number: 88% (89%)
Percentage by value average low/high estimate: 67% (77%)
Percentage of cars sold below low estimate: 59% (34%)
Percentage of cars sold not met average of estimates: 79% (52%)
Percentage of cars sold met/exceeded top estimate: 12% (30%)
Average year of cars offered: 1982 (1982)
Average price of cars sold: $1,247,904 ($1,313,430)
Number of cars offered at No Reserve: 95 (67)
Percentage of cars offered at No Reserve:  36% (31%)
 
Not much change here. More cars meant a bigger gross with only a slight easing on prices – the dramatic reduction in the number of cars beating upper estimate (12% vs. 30% in 2022) is the interesting figure. Everything is less frothy; perhaps a limit has been reached.
 
Porsche market. Cars offered at major like-for-like-auctions held in 2023 (2022)‡
 
Total gross cars: $76,764,894 ($113,840,359)
Number of cars not sold: 71 (16)
Number of cars withdrawn: 5 (3)
Total number of cars: 311 (209)
Number sold: 240 (193)
Percentage cars sold by number: 77% (92%)
Percentage by value average low/high estimate: 46% (82%)
Percentage of cars sold below low estimate: 60% (39%)
Percentage of cars sold not met average of estimates: 78% (54%)
Percentage of cars sold met/exceeded top estimate: 11% (27%)
Average year of cars offered: 1983 (1982)
Average price of cars sold: $319,854 ($589,846)
Percentage of cars offered at No Reserve: 39% (37%)
 
Despite an additional 50 percent of Stuttgart entries catalogued, the aggregated gross fell – partly due to several valuable sports-prototypes selling in 2022, and far more cars bought this year below estimate. Compared with the Ferrari market, Porsche, the marque that has made the running in recent years, has slipped back.
 
Pre-1994 market. Cars offered at major like-for-like-auctions held in 2023 (2022)‡
 
Number of pre-1994 cars as percentage of total: 80% (81%)
Percentage cars sold by number: 79% (85%)
Percentage by value average low/high estimate: 57% (68%)
Percentage of cars sold below low estimate: 62% (49%)
Percentage of cars sold not met average of estimates: 80% (63%)
Percentage of cars sold met/exceeded top estimate: 11% (21%)
Average year of cars offered: 1961 (1959)
Average price of cars sold: $457,309 ($513,937)
Percentage of cars offered at No Reserve:  46% (43%)
 
1994-now market. Cars offered at major like-for-like-auctions held in 2023 (2022)‡
 
Number of 1994-on cars as percentage of total: 20% (19%)
Percentage cars sold by number: 86% (91%)
Percentage by value average low/high estimate: 65% (80%)
Percentage of cars sold below low estimate: 49% (34%)
Number of cars sold not met average of estimates: 264 (155)
Percentage of cars sold not met average of estimates: 71% (50%)
Percentage of cars sold met/exceeded top estimate: 17% (35%)
Average year of cars offered: 2007 (2006)
Average price of cars sold: $500,157 ($571,233)
Percentage of cars offered at No Reserve:  50% (46%)
 
Taking an arbitrary ‘pre- and post-McLaren F1’ cut-off, the proportion of ‘traditional’ vs. ‘Youngtimer’ classics at auction remained the same from 2022 to 2023. Sold-by-number has fallen for the older cars, as has the number of cars beating top estimate, while the newer cars do better on both counts. The halving of post-1994 entries beating top guide price, though, shows the recent bubble of limited-edition Porsches and Ferraris in particular has lost some air, if not burst.
 
‡ Bonhams and RM in Arizona; Bonhams at Goodwood Revival and Festival, Zoute and Bond St; RM in London and Munich; Bonhams, Broad Arrow, Gooding and RM at Amelia Island; Bonhams, Broad Arrow, Gooding and RM in Monterey; Gooding at Hampton Court; Artcurial, Bonhams and RM at Paris Rétromobile. Dollar conversions made on the day.
 
Photo by K500