"What's the market doing?"

"What's the market doing?" 11th January 2019

We’ve crunched the figures from like-for-like sales, comparing the results for the same auctions in 2017 and 2018. If anyone else has done the same analysis, they haven’t published it...
 
Top 10 cars sold at auction in 2018
 
1. Monterey - RM. 1962 Ferrari 250 GTO (est. $45m to $60m) $48,405,000
2. LA Petersen Museum - RM. 1956 Ferrari 290 MM (est. $22m to $26m) $22,005,000
3. Monterey - Gooding. 1935 Duesenberg SSJ (est. 'On Request') $22,000,000
4. Monterey - RM. 1963 Aston Martin DP215 (est. $18m to $22m) $21,455,000
5. Goodwood Festival - Bonhams. 1961 Aston Martin DB4 GT 'MP209' Zagato (est. 'On Request') £10,081,500 ($13.32m)
6. Monterey - RM. 1966 Ford GT40 Mk II (est. $9m to $12m) $9,795,000
7. Scottsdale - Gooding. 1964 Ferrari 275 GTB Speciale (est. $8m to $10m) $8,085,000
8. Monterey - Gooding. 1958 Ferrari 250 GT Tour de France Berlinetta (est. $6.5m to $7.5m) $6,600,000
9. Goodwood Festival - Bonhams. 1932-34 Alfa Romeo Tipo B Grand Prix Monoposto (est. £4.5m to £5m) £4,593,500 ($6.07m)
10. Porsche Atlanta - RM. 1985 Porsche 959 Paris-Dakar (est. $3m to $3.4m) $5,945,000

Note: Estimates are intended to reflect eventual hammer price – final sales price includes buyer’s premium
 
Scottsdale/Amelia Island/Monterey combined 2018 (2017 figures in brackets)
 
Bonhams: Gross $75m ($102m) -26%, at 84% sold by number (82%)
Gooding: Gross $201m ($154m) +30%, at 87% sold by number (81%)
RM Sotheby’s: Gross $222m ($257m) -14%, at 85% sold by number (89%)
 
Bonhams/Gooding/RM combined:
 
Gross: $498m ($513m) -3%                         
Total number of cars: 1088 (1076)
Percentage cars sold by number: 85% (85%)
Percentage of cars met or sold below low estimate: 66% (66%)
Percentage of cars sold below avge of estimates: 82% (83%)
Percentage of cars sold met/exceeded top estimate: 10% (10%)
Average price of cars sold: $536k ($564k)
Average year of cars offered: 1967 (1966)
Percentage of cars offered at No Reserve:  55% (54%)
 
Overall, values slipped slightly, but 50%+ at No Reserve and pragmatic US sellers meant that the US market held up well in 2018. Gooding is the clear winner here, although RM’s overall dominance in North America (ca. $350m for all US sales) is undeniable. Bonhams lacked the headliners (McLaren F1, Lightweight E-type x 2) they’d benefitted from in 2017.
 
Like-for-like 2018 European sales combined (2017)†

 
Gross: $168m ($134m) +26%
Total number of cars: 753 (703)
Percentage cars sold by number: 70% (68%)
Percentage of cars sold below low estimate: 56% (56%)
Percentage of cars sold not met avge of estimates: 73% (78%)
Percentage of cars sold met/exceeded top estimate: 17% (15%)
Average value of cars sold: $321k ($279k)
Average year of cars offered: 1966 (1968)
Percentage of cars offered at No Reserve: 29% (20%)
 
As usual, sell-through in Europe was lower than in the US, but still an acceptable 70%, helped by more entries accepted only at No Reserve. This year saw a greater number of cars offered, sold at a higher average value, though the European Ancien Regime reversed the fashion for Youngtimers.
 
† Includes: Artcurial/Bonhams RM in Paris, Bonhams Aston Martin, Bonhams Goodwood Festival, Bonhams Revival, RM London, Bonhams December Bond St. USD conversion on the day
 
Like-for-like Europe + US sales combined (2017)‡
 
Gross: $667m ($647m) +3%
Total number of cars: 1841 (1779)
Percentage cars sold by number: 79% (78%)
Percentage of cars sold below low estimate: 62% (62%)
Percentage of cars sold not met avge of estimates: 79% (81%)
Percentage of cars sold met/exceeded top estimate: 13% (12%)
Average value of cars sold: $458k ($465k)
Average year of cars offered: 1967 (1967)
Percentage of cars offered at No Reserve: 44% (41%)
 
Overall the figures are surprisingly similar to 2017. More cars meant an increased gross, though at slightly lower average prices. Note slight increase in cars sold over top estimate: the ‘best of the best’ effect.
 
The Ferrari Market – Europe + US sales combined (2017)‡
Including RM 250 GTO ($48.4m) -
 
Gross: $174m ($184m) -6%
Total number of cars: 230 (245)
Average value of cars sold: $1.04m ($1.04m)
Average year of cars offered: 1982 (1981)
Average mid-estimate price (of all cars offered): $1.39m ($1.1m)
Number of cars with mid-estimate price over $5m: 15 (10)
$5m+ mid-estimate cars sold: 5, or 33% (8, or 80%)


Excluding RM 250 GTO -
 
Gross: $125m ($184m) -32%
Total number of cars: 229 (245)
Average value of cars sold: $754k ($1.04m)
Average year of cars offered: 1982 (1981)
Average mid-estimate price (of all cars offered): $1.2m ($1.1m)
Number of cars with mid-estimate price over $5m: 14 (10)
$5m+ mid-estimate cars sold: 4, or 29% (8, or 80%)
 
Take out RM’s record-breaking 250 GTO and the worldwide Ferrari market looks softer. Fewer cars offered overall (“My car’s worth more than that…”), though quite a hike in the $5m+ Club, of which just 5 out of 15 went to new homes if you include the GTO. None of these beat low estimate.
 
Ferrari vs. Porsche – Europe + US sales combined (2017) ‡
 
Number of Porsches offered: 257 (248)
Porsches as a percentage of all cars at auction: 14% (14%)
Number of Ferraris offered: 230 (245)
Ferraris as a percentage of all cars at auction: 13% (14%)
 
Not much to see here: the big influx of Porsches to market in 2015-2017 has steadied and the German marque now – just – outnumbers its Italian rival.
 
The conclusion: K500’s index, hovering just above 500 all year, sums it up. The market has been surprisingly flat, stable, consistent. No great surges or drops: financial markets would probably be jealous.

‡ Includes Bonhams/Gooding RM at Scottsdale/Amelia Island/Monterey, plus Artcurial/Bonhams RM in Paris, Bonhams Aston Martin, Bonhams Goodwood Festival, Bonhams Revival, RM London, Bonhams December Bond St.
 
All prices include buyer’s premium and are converted at the Euro/Stg USD conversion on the day.

Photo by K500