Market summary: what we learned in Florida

The results are in – finally. After frantic post-sale dealing, the combined total for the four firms holding auctions last weekend tops $186m, which breaks 2023’s record $178m. But did bigger mean ‘better’ as far as the health of the market is concerned?
 
It was the much-anticipated showdown between three auctions held at the long-established Amelia Island concours and breakaway RM Sotheby’s, who’d moved south to create a more modern lifestyle event in Miami. It turned out that, for this year at least, the two can co-exist: there were no winners or losers other than Bonhams, whose dismal total was the worst it’s recorded there since our records began in 2015.
 
ModaMiami is a refreshing change from most classic car concours with a much younger vibe and – for the moment – unheard-of ease of access to an international airport (25 minutes) and a wealth of quality hotels only a 15-minute Uber ride away. The Coral Gables Biltmore golf course can clearly take many more cars and exhibition stands, and we expect the event to be significantly bigger in 2025. Whether other auction houses apart from event-partner Broad Arrow jump ship from Amelia is the big What If.
 
Delving into the stats, the increase in combined gross matches the +/-5% increase in the number of entries. With just one $10m+ result this year, like-for-like growth has been sustained by more $2m+ cars than in 2023: 24 vs. 15. As the results came in, there was a feeling in Miami that cars were selling “cheaply”. Measured against estimates, this is true: two-thirds fell below lower guide price and only 10% beat upper. Last year that was 62%/14%, in peak-boom 2014 it was 39%/25%.
 
Sell-through has dropped a little, but the age of cars catalogued matched last year, 1973. Ten years ago, that was 1954.
 
So, “business as usual” with the following caveats:
 
* It ain't over 'til it's over. We can’t remember another major-league selling spree when so many big-ticket cars were moved on post-event, many now simply listed as ‘sold’ without a price disclosed. Perhaps this is a new trend. It’s certainly a sign that the auction houses are having to earn their money in a tougher trading environment, and sellers showing flexibility.
 
* Million-dollar Dino GTS? It could happen, judging by the super-ordinary US-spec but super-original (3,500 miles) red car bought for $918,000 at Gooding. And not even a ‘chairs and flares’.
 
* Let it loose. Pragmatic sellers holding unfashionable stock cast it adrift when there was only one real bidder in town. Witness many lesser pre-War cars, and RM’s very pretty but primitive 1953 Ferrari 250 Europa Coupé by Vignale which brought $600k below low estimate.
 
* Lightning can strike twice. Who’d have thought a modern, mid-2000s Ferrari four-seater that cost around $250k new would sell for $467,000 19 years later? They drop in value like a stone, right? That was Friday at Gooding. A day later in Miami, another 612 Scaglietti, this time a one-of-60 Sessanta – at $125k to $175k, No Reserve – was bought for $456,000 after a battle royale at RM.
 
* The Crockett and Tubbs effect. Thanks to their interesting specifications, two Ferrari ‘Daytona’ Spiders sold well: $3.63m and $3.3m. They weren’t far from their natural home of Miami.
 
This is the US. In a 12-month run to date the Dow Jones put on 18%, the Nasdaq recently jumped 30% in four months. Don’t expect the same to happen in more circumspect Europe, the land of cautious sellers and buyer’s premiums nearly 50 per cent more than Stateside.

A final comment from Simon: “The result everyone’s talking about is the big 1903 Mercedes, sold from the original owner’s family after 121 years. It’s as much about the history as the model, and both were an auctioneer’s dream. It went to one of the world’s greatest collections, and proves that the very best of any era transcends fashion. Elsewhere the Dino and two ‘Daytona’ Spiders confirm that originality and great factory colours are increasingly prized. Overall, $186 million of cars sold in one weekend has to give everyone in this market reassurance that hard work and focus on all sides make things happen.”
 
This May the Monaco Historics host Artcurial, Bonhams and RM Sotheby’s for another high-profile shoot-out. Some rare, multi-million-euro classic Ferraris are already catalogued; RM has just announced a mostly No Reserve collection of racing cars coming direct from former World Champion Jody Scheckter. Place your bets in the Principality: will the roulette wheel stop at red or black? Rely on K500 to be at the tables.

29 February-2 March 2024 Florida auctions, Bonhams, Broad Arrow, Gooding and RM Sotheby’s combined (2023)

Gross: $186,909,597 ($177,789,949)
Number of cars not sold: 79 (58)
Number of cars withdrawn: 4 (1)
Total number of cars: 473 (454)
Number sold: 394 (396)
Percentage of cars sold by number: 83% (87%)
Percentage by value average low/high estimate: 60% (62%)
Percentage of cars met or sold below low estimate: 66% (60%)
Percentage of cars sold below avge of estimates: 82% (75%)
Percentage of cars sold met/exceeded top estimate: 10% (14%)
Average price of cars sold: $474,390 ($448,965)
Average year of cars offered: 1973 (1969)
Percentage of cars offered at No Reserve: 52% (50%)
 
Top 10 cars sold by value at the 2024 Florida auctions†

1. Gooding 1903 Mercedes-Simplex 60 HP 'Roi des Belges', $12,105,000
2. Broad Arrow 1967 Ford GT40, $4,405,000
3. RM 1953 Ferrari 250 Europa Coupé, $4,295,000
4. Broad Arrow 2022 Bugatti Chiron Pur Sport, $4,047,500
5. Gooding 1954 Ferrari 500 Mondial Series I Spider, $3,995,000
6. RM 1930 Duesenberg Model J 'Disappearing Top' Convertible Coupe, $3,855,000
7. Gooding 1972 Ferrari 365 GTS/4 Daytona Spider, $3,635,000
8. Gooding 2015 Porsche 918 Spyder Weissach, $3,525,000
9. RM 1990 Ferrari F40, $3,360,000
10. Broad Arrow 1973 Ferrari 365 GTS/4 Daytona Spider, $3,305,000

† Does not include results listed by auction houses without price simply as ‘sold’

Total value of top 10 sales at Amelia Island in 2024: $46,527,500 (2023, $51,970,000) or -10.47%.

Average age of Top 10 cars 1968 (2022, 1972). Take out the 1903 Mercedes-Simplex and it’s 1975.

Bonhams at Amelia Island, 29 February 2024 – results (2023)
 
Gross, motor cars: $6,888,425 ($12,916,470)
Number of cars not sold: 26 (21)
Number of cars withdrawn: 1 (1)
Total number of cars: 78 (102)
Number sold: 52 (81)
Percentage of cars sold by number: 67% (79%)
Percentage by value average low/high estimate: 31% (34%)
Percentage of cars met or sold below low estimate: 83% (64%)
Percentage of cars sold below avge of estimates: 88% (77%)
Percentage of cars sold met/exceeded top estimate: 8% (14%)
Average price of cars sold: $88,313 ($126,632)
Average year of cars offered: 1969 (1963)
Percentage of cars offered at No Reserve: 33% (54%)
 
Gooding at Amelia Island, 29 February-1 March 2024 – results (2023)
 
Gross, motor cars: $67,342,270 ($72,676,188)
Number of cars not sold: 17 (7)
Number of cars withdrawn: 0 (0)
Total number of cars: 127 (155)
Number sold: 110 (148)
Percentage of cars sold by number: 87% (95%)
Percentage by value average low/high estimate: 74% (70%)
Percentage of cars met or sold below low estimate: 66% (62%)
Percentage of cars sold below avge of estimates: 79% (78%)
Percentage of cars sold met/exceeded top estimate: 15% (11%)
Average price of cars sold: $612,202 ($491,055)
Average year of cars offered: 1968 (1969)
Percentage of cars offered at No Reserve: 60% (67%)
 
Broad Arrow at Amelia Island, 1-2 March 2024 – results (2023)
 
Gross, motor cars: $63,388,542†† ($28,601,380)
Number of cars not sold: 12 (21)
Number of cars withdrawn: 0 (0)
Total number of cars: 150 (109)
Number sold: 138 (88)
Percentage of cars sold by number: 92% (81%)
Percentage by value average low/high estimate: 56% (55%)
Percentage of cars met or sold below low estimate: 61% (58%)
Percentage of cars sold below avge of estimates: 83% (72%)
Percentage of cars sold met/exceeded top estimate: 9% (11%)
Average price of cars sold: $459,337 ($325,016)
Average year of cars offered: 1975 (1977)
Percentage of cars offered at No Reserve: 55% (31%)
 
†† Figure supplied by Broad Arrow, includes post-sales listed without price as ‘sold’
 
RM Sotheby’s in Miami, 1-2 March 2024 – results (2023†††)
 
Gross, motor cars: $49,295,860 ($63,595,911)
Number of cars not sold: 23 (9)
Number of cars withdrawn: 3 (0)
Total number of cars: 117 (88)
Number sold: 94 (79)
Percentage of cars sold by number: 80% (90%)
Percentage by value average low/high estimate: 53% (67%)
Percentage of cars met or sold below low estimate: 64% (54%)
Percentage of cars sold below avge of estimates: 82% (73%)
Percentage of cars sold met/exceeded top estimate: 10% (13%)
Average price of cars sold: $524,424 ($805,012)
Average year of cars offered: 1978 (1964)
Percentage of cars offered at No Reserve:  51% (40%)
 
††† Held at Amelia Island
 
You can download a list of all cars sold by Bonhams, Broad Arrow, Gooding and RM Sotheby’s sorted by make and model HERE.
 
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